BY CP ABRAHAM
Thiruvananthapuram, KERALA: Early trends from across Kerala in the 2026 Assembly elections indicate a decisive political shift, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) surging ahead and poised for a commanding return to power.
As of 4 pm, the UDF is leading in over 100 of the 140 Assembly constituencies, comfortably crossing the majority mark. In contrast, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is trailing significantly, struggling to retain even 40 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) remains a marginal player, leading in only a handful of constituencies.
Anti-Incumbency Wave Against LDF
The trends point to strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. In a symbolic moment of the shifting tide, Vijayan initially trailed in his stronghold of Dharmadam before regaining the lead in subsequent counting rounds.
Several senior ministers in the LDF government have also faced serious setbacks, indicating voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration after two consecutive terms in power.
UDF Gains Momentum
On the other hand, key UDF leaders have delivered emphatic victories. Senior Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala secured a convincing win in Haripad, reinforcing the alliance’s strong showing across regions.
The UDF’s surge appears to be driven by consolidation of minority votes, welfare-focused campaigning, and a broader voter push for change.
Kerala Returns to Alternating Pattern
If the current trends hold, Kerala is set to return to its traditional pattern of alternating governments between the UDF and LDF. The scale of the UDF’s lead suggests not just a routine transition but a sweeping mandate.
Counting is still underway in several constituencies, and final results are expected later in the day.
Key Winners Across Constituencies (As of 4 PM)
Indian National Congress (INC) and Allies (UDF):
- Adoor – Adv. C V Santhakumar
- Alappuzha – A D Thomas
- Aranmula – Abin Varkey Kodiyattu
- Aroor – Shanimol Osman
- Balusseri – V T Sooraj
- Chalakudy – Saneeshkumar Joseph
- Chittur – Sumesh Achuthan
- Elathur – Vidya Balakrishnan
- Ernakulam – T J Vinod
- Ettumanoor – Nattakom Suresh
- Haripad – Ramesh Chennithala
- Idukki – Roy K Paulose
- Kalpetta – T Siddique
- Kanjirappally – Rony K Baby
- Karunagappally – C R Mahesh
- Kochi – Mohammed Shiyas
- Kodungallur – O J Janeesh
- Kollam – Bindhu Krishna
- Kottayam – Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan
- Kovalam – M Vincent
- Kongad – Thulasi Teacher
- Mananthavady – Usha Vijayan
- Muvattupuzha – Mathew Kuzhalnadan
- Nadapuram – K M Abhijith
- Neyyattinkara – N Shakthan
- Nilambur – Aryadan Shoukath
- Palakkad – Ramesh Pisharody
- Pathanapuram – Jyothi Kumar Chamakala
- Peerumade – Cyriac Thomas
- Perumbavoor – Manoj Moothedan
- Peravoor – Sunny Joseph
- Puthuppally – Chandy Oommen
- Quilandy – K Praveen Kumar
- Sulthanbathery – I C Balakrishnan
- Thavanur – V S Joy
- Thrikkakara – Uma Thomas
- Thrissur – Rajan J Pallan
- Thrithala – V T Balram
- Trikaripur – Sandeep Varier
- Udumbanchola – Senapathy Venu
- Vaikom – K Binimon
- Vamanapuram – Muhammed Sudheersha S
- Vypen – Tony Chammany
Indian Union Muslim League (IUML):
- Kasaragod – Kallatra Mahin
- Koduvally – P K Firos
- Kozhikode South – Fyzal Babu
- Kunnamangalam – M A Razak Master
- Kuttiadi – Parakkal Abdulla
- Mankada – Manjalamkuzhi Ali
- Mannarkkad – N Samsudheen
- Tanur – P K Navas
- Thiruvambadi – C K Kasim
Kerala Congress and Allies:
- Changanassery – Vinu Job Kuzhimannil
- Irinjalakuda – Thomas Unniyadan
- Kaduthuruthy – Mons Joseph
- Kothamangalam – Shibu Theckumpuram
- Piravom – Anoop Jacob
- Thiruvalla – Varghese Mammen
- Thodupuzha – Apu John Joseph
Left Democratic Front (LDF):
- Alathur – T M Sasi (CPI-M)
- Attingal – O S Ambika (CPI-M)
- Beypore – P A Mohamed Riyas (CPI-M)
- Chelakkara – U R Pradeep (CPI-M)
- Chengannur – Saji Cherian (CPI-M)
- Guruvayoor – N K Akbar (CPI-M)
- Kalliasseri – M Vijin (CPI-M)
- Kanhangad – Govindan Pallikappil (CPI)
- Kaipamangalam – K K Valsaraj (CPI)
- Kottarakkara – K N Balagopal (CPI-M)
- Kunnamkulam – A C Moideen (CPI-M)
- Malampuzha – A Prabhakaran (CPI-M)
- Mavelikkara – M S Arun Kumar (CPI-M)
- Nattika – Geethagopi (CPI)
- Nemmara – K Preman (CPI-M)
- Ollur – K Rajan (CPI)
- Ottappalam – K Premkumar (CPI-M)
- Parassala – C K Hareendran (CPI-M)
- Pattambi – Muhammed Muhassin (CPI)
- Pudukad – K K Ramachandran (CPI-M)
- Punalur – C Ajayaprasad (CPI)
- Shornur – P Mammikutty (CPI-M)
- Tarur – Sumod (CPI-M)
- Thalassery – Karayi Rajan (CPI-M)
- Varkala – V Joy (CPI-M)
- Wadakkanchery – Xavier Chittilappilly (CPI-M)
Others / Independents:
- Chathannoor – B B Gopakumar (BJP)
- Chavara – Shibu Baby John (RSP)
- Eravipuram – Vishnu Mohan (RSP)
- Kunnathur – Ullas Kovur (RSP)
- Kuthuparamba – P K Praveen (RJD)
- Pala – Mani C Kappen (Independent)
- Payyannur – V Kunhikrishnan (Independent)
- Thiruvananthapuram – C P John (CMP)
- Vadakara – K K Rema (RMPI)