As the Kerala legislative assembly election campaign heats up, predicting the outcome remains difficult. The ruling Left Front faces the challenge of anti-incumbency, while the main opposition, the Indian National Congress, is weakened by internal factional conflicts. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the right-wing Hindu nationalist party, is struggling to establish itself as a strong third force.
Kerala is known for its high literacy and political awareness, but communal issues still play an important role in elections—whether local or general. Some may argue that Kerala stands out for its secularism and peaceful coexistence. While that’s true to an extent, communal divisions still influence politics. This becomes clear in candidate selection, where parties often choose Muslim candidates in Muslim-majority Malappuram and Christian candidates in Christian-majority areas. Though rarely admitted openly, this is an undeniable reality.
Community Votes Matter
Muslims, the second-largest community in Kerala, make up about 26–27% of the population and represent a crucial voting bloc. Traditionally, Muslim voters support the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) against the Left Democratic Front (LDF). But this pattern may not hold in the upcoming assembly elections. It is inaccurate to say Muslims always back UDF candidates unconditionally. Rather, in national elections, many Muslims support Congress mainly to prevent the BJP from gaining power, which they see as a threat to their interests.
In assembly elections, the situation is different. Both the LDF and UDF claim to be secular and oppose the BJP. This means Muslims in northern Kerala often swing between the two fronts, focusing more on defeating the BJP than showing unwavering loyalty to either side.
Young voters, tired of old political rivalries, tend to choose candidates based on their qualities rather than party lines or communal identity. Their votes could be decisive in close races. These new voters care less about roads, bridges, or communal rhetoric. Instead, they want better economic opportunities and jobs. They hope for a financially stronger Kerala with lower fuel prices and a more flexible financial system. Unlike staunch party supporters, who stick firmly to their allegiance, most people desire change.
The demand is for a shift toward more flexible economic policies, moving away from the rigid approach of the communist-led government. There is a growing desire for a more open market, increased investment, and greater liquidity. Many believe that a shift from the current rule, along with policy changes, would help the economy thrive. If these aspirations materialize, it may not be good news for the Left.
As the poet W. H. Auden said, “Something is going to fall like rain, and it won’t be flowers.” At present, it appears the Left Front is unlikely to receive good news. That is the prevailing mood for now.
Slight Edge for UDF
It is too early to predict the winnability of any party. However, the anti-incumbency trend appears strong enough that the UDF, as the main alternative, has a chance to return to power—especially if the local body election results from last December are any indication. The UDF alliance secured what was widely seen as a landslide victory. Although local elections revolve around different issues, they can still serve as an early indicator of the broader political direction. Hence, the final outcome may favor the UDF, though not necessarily by a large margin.
O.Umarul Farooque is a Kerala-based senior journalist and writer.